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Briefing 61January 15, 2026London, England
What’s Inside:
The Big Merge: Allegiant Air acquires Sun Country in a $1.5 billion deal—what this "Plan B" means for international growth and the Amazon Air cargo contract.

Delta’s Dreamliner Pivot: Why Delta just placed its first direct order for 30 Boeing 787-10s and what it says about their 2030 fleet strategy.

2025 Scorecard: Airbus and Boeing have released their final delivery numbers. We break down who came out on top and the record-breaking backlogs facing both manufacturers.

Touchless Travel: The TSA is fast-tracking biometrics to 50 more airports by spring 2026. See if your home hub is on the list.

Route Intelligence: New seasonal service to China, Emirates heading to Helsinki, and a rare return to Zurich for Kuwait Airways.

The "Lipstick Bomb" Ban: A cautionary tale from Warsaw about why some jokes are better left unmade at security.
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Route Intelligence Report

New and Proposed Routes
Asiana Airlines (OZ) will return two daily Chinese summer seasonal routes this year from Seoul Incheon: Chengdu Tianfu (TFU) and Chongqing (CKG) on March 29. Both routes will see an Airbus A321neo rostered.
Türkiye's AJet (VF) is set to begin 5x weekly service from Istanbul Gökçen (SAW) to Tirana, Albania (TIA) on March 11. This route will be operated by a variety of aircraft.
Norwegian (D8) intends to add a weekly run from Stockholm (ARN) to Beirut, Lebanon (BEY) on April 3. A Boeing 737-800 is rostered on this sector.
Emirates (EK) will begin daily flights from Dubai (DXB) to Helsinki (HEL) on October 1. A 298-seat Airbus A350-900 will ply this route.
Kuwait Airways (KU) plans to add 3x weekly service from Kuwait City (KWI) to Zurich in mid-June. This route, last flown in 1981, will be operated by Airbus A321neo equipment.
Taiwan’s EVA Air (BR) will add its 8th U.S. destination in July when 4x weekly service from Taipei (TPE) to Washington Dulles (IAD) begins. A Boeing 787-9 will operate this route; exact date of service commencement has not yet been announced.

Dropped and Suspended Routes
LOT Polish Airlines (LO) will end flights from Vilnius, Lithuania (VNO) to London City (LCY) on March 27. This route, flown 5x weekly, has been in operation since 2019.
Air Arabia Abu Dhabi (3L) will drop flights from Abu Dhabi (AUH) to Istanbul Gökçen at the end of the month.

Fleet Intelligence

Latest Aircraft Deliveries
Rego Type Operator Date
7T-VLA Airbus A330-941 Air Algérie Jan 14, 2026
N314VB Boeing 737 MAX 8 American Airlines Jan 12, 2026
N315VC Boeing 737 MAX 8 American Airlines Jan 12, 2026
N532CN Embraer ERJ-140LR Contour Airlines Jan 13, 2026
N535CN Embraer ERJ-140LR Contour Airlines Jan 11, 2026
TC-SLC Boeing 737 MAX 8 SunExpress Jan 13, 2026
Latest Aircraft Retirements
N827UA, an Airbus A319-131 with United Airlines (UA), was withdrawn from use (wfu) and ferried on January 13 to Victorville, Calif. (VCV) for part-out and scrap. This frame was delivered new to United in May 1999 and had accumulated 79,815 hours and 34,937 cycles as of last Thursday.
PK-AZP, an Airbus A320-214 with Indonesia Air Asia (QZ), was wfu and ferried on January 12 to Cotswold, England (GBA) for part-out and scrap.
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Aviation Security

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is set to significantly expand its TSA PreCheck Touchless ID program, rolling it out to roughly 50 additional US airports by spring 2026, up from just 15 today. Touchless PreCheck allows enrolled travelers to pass through dedicated security lanes without presenting a physical ID or boarding pass, instead using a facial biometric scan to verify identity before proceeding directly to screening. The service is available at no extra cost to TSA PreCheck and Global Entry members, though travelers must opt in through participating airlines by uploading passport information. Initial expansions begin this month at major hubs - by the end of the rollout, the TSA expects Touchless ID to be operating at about 65 airports nationwide, offering one of the fastest checkpoint experiences available while preserving traditional PreCheck lanes for travelers who prefer not to use biometric screening.

Flightline Feature
Stamp
Collection
Stamp
Passenger
Unruly Passengers in 2026: 59
As of January 12, 2026
📖 Read Commercial Aviation 101 by Greg Gayden 📖 Read Behind the Cockpit Door by Nigel Everton

Aviation Industry News

News of this came out just as our Monday briefing was being finalized: Allegiant Air (G4) will merge with Sun Country Airlines (SY), in a $1.5 billion strategic consolidation of two of the most profitable leisure-focused carriers in the United States. Under the terms of the deal, Las Vegas (LAS) based Allegiant will acquire Sun Country in a cash-and-stock transaction, eventually retiring the 43-year-old Sun Country brand and integrating its operations into a single platform under the Allegiant name. This combination is particularly unique because of how well the two airlines fit together; while Minneapolis (MSP) based Sun Country maintains a focus on international vacation spots and cargo, Allegiant operates a sprawling point-to-point network connecting small and mid-sized cities to domestic leisure hubs. Consequently, the two airlines have virtually no competitive friction, with only one or two overlapping routes in their combined network of over 650 routes.

This lack of overlap is a major strategic advantage for the merger's regulatory approval, as it expands travel options rather than reducing competition on existing flights. Allegiant gains an immediate, defensible "fortress" presence in the Upper Midwest and inherits Sun Country's lucrative diversified revenue streams, including a long-term cargo contract with Amazon Air and a robust charter business for sports and military clients. For travelers, the merger will eventually lead to a unified loyalty program, combining Sun Country’s 2 million members with Allegiant’s 21 million. While the deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026, the companies will operate as separate entities with independent booking systems until they receive a single operating certificate from the FAA.

FLIGHTLINE ANALYSIS

The merger is widely interpreted by analysts as a strategic "Plan B" that effectively bypasses the regulatory gridlock of Allegiant’s failed joint venture with Mexican carrier Viva (VB). By acquiring Sun Country, Allegiant moves from a frustrated attempt at a cross-border partnership to direct ownership of an established international platform. This shift allows Allegiant to immediately inherit Sun Country’s 18 international routes to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, fulfilling a long-standing growth ambition that the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) had previously stalled. Because the two carriers share a "flexible capacity" philosophy (flying more during peak leisure seasons and less during off-peak times) the integration creates a more resilient powerhouse that is less dependent on the whims of international treaty negotiations.

Beyond the passenger cabin, this merger fundamentally transforms Allegiant’s business model from a pure play/leisure carrier into a diversified aviation conglomerate. The crown jewel of this diversification is Sun Country’s cargo division, which includes a high-margin, long-term contract with Amazon Air. As of 2026, Sun Country has expanded this dedicated freighter fleet to 22 aircraft, providing a stable, counter-cyclical revenue stream that protects the company during downturns in discretionary travel. By folding these operations, along with a robust military and sports charter business, into its own, Allegiant gains the scale and financial stability to compete against the "Big Three" ultra-low-cost carriers (Frontier, Spirit, and Southwest) without the risk of ruinous price wars on overlapping routes.

AIRBUS AND BOEING 2025 SUMMARIES

Airbus closed out 2025 with a strong production push, delivering a total of 793 commercial aircraft to 91 customers worldwide, a roughly 4 percent increase versus 2024 and slightly above its revised annual target of around 790 units. This total was anchored by a particularly productive December, when Airbus handed over 136 aircraft, one of its busiest months in recent years as narrow-body and wide-body deliveries were accelerated to finish the year. The December deliveries included a mix of A220, A320neo family, A330neo, and A350 aircraft, with narrow-bodies leading the count. The full-year results also reflected continued demand across Airbus’s portfolio, with the A320 family accounting for the majority of deliveries and sustained demand contributing to a record year-end order backlog of 8,754 aircraft. Airbus will disclose its full audited 2025 financial results later this winter.

In 2025 Boeing delivered a notable 600 commercial jets, marking its highest annual total since 2018 and a clear sign of production momentum returning across its mainline programs. According to Boeing’s full-year figures, the breakdown by model was 447 737 MAX family aircraft, 30 767s, 35 777 family airplanes, and 88 787 Dreamliners handed over to customers during the year. This output helped Boeing outpace its European rival on net orders for the first time in seven years, securing roughly 1,175 aircraft on the books as airlines expanded and refreshed fleets, driven largely by strong demand for narrow-bodies and renewed interest in wide-body capacity. 

Etihad Airways (EY) closed 2025 with its strongest operational year to date, carrying 22.4 million passengers, a 21 percent increase compared with 2024 and the highest annual total in the airline’s history. Load factors remained robust throughout the year, finishing with an 88.3 percent annual average, and December alone saw 2.2 million passengers, up 28 percent year-over-year, underscoring sustained peak travel demand. The carrier also expanded its operations, ending the year with an operating fleet of 127 aircraft after adding 29 jets in 2025 — the largest single-year fleet growth in Etihad’s history — and serving a broader global network, reflecting both strong demand and disciplined capacity management.

In the leasing world, BOC Aviation delivered 51 aircraft to its airline customers in 2025 as part of continued fleet expansion activity, bringing its total order book to 337 jets at year-end. The deliveries were concentrated across in-demand narrow-body and wide-body models, reflecting sustained airline demand for fuel-efficient, modern aircraft. The company also marked a strong net order intake during the year, supporting future growth and backlog stability. With robust leasing activity in all major markets, BOC Aviation reaffirmed its position as one of the largest and most active aircraft lessors globally, balancing fleet rotation, delivery pacing, and customer needs throughout 2025.

NOVEMBER RAIN: U.S. travel agencies sold $7,146,979,608 in commercial airline tickets in November. This covered 20.5 million trips, including 12.4 million domestic and 8.1 million international visits.

U.S. scheduled service airlines in November used 1.483 billion gallons of fuel, 7.8 percent less fuel than in October 2025 (1.608 billion gallons) and 0.8 percent less fuel than November 2024 (1.495 billion gallons). The cost per gallon of fuel in November 2025 ($2.42) was up 8 cents (3.2 percent) from October 2025 ($2.34) and up 11 cents (4.7 percent) from November 2024 ($2.31). Total November 2025 fuel expenditure ($3.59b) was down 4.8 percent from October 2025 ($3.77b) and up 3.9 percent from November 2024 ($3.45b).

DELTA ORDERS BOEING 787s

Delta Air Lines (DL) has placed a firm order for 30 Boeing 787-10 Dreamliners, with options for up to 30 more, marking the carrier’s first direct purchase of the 787 family and a notable rebalancing in its wide-body strategy. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2031, positioning the aircraft as a next-decade fleet renewal tool rather than an immediate capacity addition. While Delta and Boeing did not disclose the transaction value, historical catalog pricing for the 787-10 stood at roughly $326 million per aircraft, putting the notional value of the firm order near $9.8 billion, before customary airline discounts. Delta has indicated the aircraft will be deployed primarily on high-demand transatlantic and South American routes, where capacity, fuel efficiency, and premium cabin economics are critical.

The choice of the 787-10 reflects a targeted mission fit rather than a wholesale shift in philosophy. As the largest Dreamliner variant, it offers lower trip costs than older wide-bodies while delivering more seats than the smaller 787-8 and 787-9, making it well suited for trunk long-haul markets. Importantly, the long delivery timeline suggests the order is aimed at early-2030s replacement cycles, particularly as Delta looks ahead to eventual retirements of aging wide-body aircraft, while also preserving flexibility through its sizeable option book.

This Boeing move contrasts with Delta’s more recent Airbus-led long-haul expansion, which has focused on nearer-term deliveries and flagship capability. Delta’s Airbus A350-1000 order, with deliveries beginning in 2026, is designed to anchor premium, ultra-long-haul flying later this decade, while the A330-900neo fleet provides a mid-sized, fuel-efficient workhorse already entering service. Together, the Airbus orders cover Delta’s late-2020s growth and product roadmap, while the 787-10 deal extends planning into the 2030s and restores supplier balance. Rather than a pivot away from Airbus, the 787 order underscores Delta’s long-standing approach of sequencing fleet investments to match network needs, leverage competition between manufacturers, and manage risk across decades.

SOLID 2025 FINANCIAL RESULTS

Delta Air Lines closed its centennial year on a high note, reporting record-breaking financial results for the December quarter and full year 2025. The Atlanta-based carrier generated a full-year operating revenue of $63.4 billion, with a pre-tax profit of $5 billion and a double-digit operating margin. For the fourth quarter specifically, Delta saw operating revenue reach $16.0 billion, a performance bolstered by a seven percent year-over-year growth in premium and diversified revenue streams. Despite navigating a challenging macroeconomic landscape and the lingering effects of a U.S. government shutdown in late 2025, the airline achieved record free cash flow of $4.6 billion for the year, allowing for significant debt reduction and a strengthened balance sheet.

In recognition of these robust results, Delta announced it will distribute $1.3 billion in profit sharing to its more than 100,000 employees on February 13, 2026. This massive payout, equates to nearly nine percent of eligible annual earnings, or more than four weeks of extra pay on average for each employee. CEO Ed Bastian credited the airline’s "differentiation and durability" to the exceptional efforts of the Delta team, noting that this reinvestment in the workforce remains a cornerstone of the company’s culture. Looking ahead to 2026, Delta has set an optimistic trajectory, forecasting 20 percent year-over-year earnings growth as corporate and consumer travel demand continues to accelerate.

The Royal Mint has launched a commemorative 50p coin to mark 50 years since Concorde’s first commercial flight, celebrating the supersonic icon that reshaped modern passenger aviation. The reverse design features Concorde in flight against a split-flap departure board with the aircraft’s name prominently displayed, and underscores a fascinating historical link: engineers who worked on Concorde also played a role in perfecting the original seven-sided 50p shape back in 1969, applying aircraft design expertise to create a coin of constant width that still circulates today. The commemorative 50p will be released into general circulation in the U.K. in 2026 alongside collector editions (Proof, Brilliant Uncirculated and historic sets), although The Royal Mint has not yet published an official figure for how many of the Concorde 50p will be struck for everyday use.

Top 9 Latin American Airlines: On-Time Performance in 2025
Rank Airline On-Time Arrivals Total Flights
1 Copa Airlines (CM) 90.75% 133,748
2 Aeromexico (AM) 90.02% 188,859
3 Gol (G3) 87.75% 238,182
4 Azul (AD) 85.18% 304,625
5 LATAM Airlines (LA) 82.40% 580,707
6 Sky Airline (H2) 82.39% 55,116
7 Avianca (AV) 81.73% 266,921
8 JetSmart Chile (JA) 76.91% 90,460
9 Aerolineas Argentinas (AR) 76.54% 107,490

Did You Know?

NERD: My colleague Greg Gayden shared this: While reviewing some recent trips for my personal Flight Log, I came across this nugget: Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) to Guadalajara (GDL) is 936 miles, while DFW to Mexico City (MEX) is 935 miles. On the coasts, DFW to Cancun (CUN) is 1,028 miles, while DFW to Los Cabos (SJD) is 1,024 miles.”

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Incidents

DUMB: Earlier this week, a security response and flight ban were triggered at Warsaw, Poland (WAW) after a passenger walked through the terminal with the word “bomb” scrawled in lipstick on her forehead, reportedly as a joke. Staff immediately alerted border guards, who isolated the 29-year-old, conducted searches, and ultimately fined her nearly €120 and barred her from boarding her Zurich (ZRH) flight. If you were wondering why a grown adult nearing their third decade would think this would cause laughs, you are not alone.

📈 Flightline Financials 🏦

Airline & Airport Operator Stock Prices
Closing Price: January 14, 2026
AAL
American
$15.14
AERO
AeroMexico
$19.20
ALGT
Allegiant
$86.49
ALK
Alaska
$47.79
BA
Boeing
$242.61
CPA
Copa
$124.54
DAL
Delta
$68.49
EMBJ
Embraer
$71.59
JBLU
JetBlue
$4.84
LTM
LATAM
$56.64
LUV
Southwest
$42.55
RJET
Republic
$18.36
RYAAY
Ryanair
$68.00
SNCY
Sun Country
$17.18
SKYW
SkyWest
$96.30
UAL
United
$110.75
ULCC
Frontier
$4.97
VLRS
Volaris
$8.71
WTI OIL
Per Barrel
$61.08
ASR
Asur
$320.80
OMAB
OMA
$106.36
PAC
GAP
$263.20
CAAP
Corp America
$25.87
Global Currency Exchange Rates
$1 USD Equals:
EUR
Euro
0.86
GBP
British Pound
0.74
MXN
Mexican Peso
17.80
CAD
Canadian Dollar
1.39


Daily Passenger Counts at U.S. Airports, 2026 vs. 2025


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